In the last blog we discussed using the CD to break the
assumptions of a conflict. When you break an assumption you create an injection
or idea. The injection is something that if it existed, then the assumption
would be broken and the conflict is resolved. It is possible to generate
several different ideas, each sufficient to resolve the conflict. The choice
now becomes which injections do you want to pursue – which one gives you the
best results? We use the Future Reality Tree (FRT) to test these ideas.
A Future Reality Tree is a sufficiency-based
logic structure that is used to check ideas. It is possible that an idea that
has good possibilities for success might also contain some flaws or negative
effects. Knowing that some bad can co-exist with the good is probably why the
common technique used to evaluate an idea/decision is a list of pros and cons.
This technique isn't all bad. Unfortunately, it does not provide enough
information as a means of systematically elevating your idea to create a good
solution nor does it enable you to check if the "pros" will really
result from the idea. The FRT first validates that the selected idea will lead
to the desired results. If it doesn't, the idea is supplemented with additional
injections until all desired results are achieved. Then, the FRT uses any
potential problems (negative effects) of an idea as a means to improve the idea
instead of a reason for dismissing it.
The Future Reality Tree is based upon three
fundamental assumptions:
1) It is better to know what the idea yields
before acting on it.
2) The future is predictable to the extent
that current causalities are understood.
3) Negative side effects, as long as they are
determined before the idea is implemented, provide the means for improving the
idea.
In many ways the Future Reality Tree is a
simulation model for ideas. It simulates the system to react to an idea with no
limits on the number of ideas that can be simultaneously tested. Using the FRT,
the existence of Injections (ideas) is assumed and their inevitable effects are
predictable using well-scrutinized cause-effect-cause relationships. Usually,
single injections are insufficient to cause the desired effects, but during the
process of building the FRT additional Injections can be discovered that are
needed in order to reach the desired result.
Sometimes a brilliant idea can turn sour. Has
it ever happened that what seemed like a good idea produced less than the
anticipated results? What seemed to be a good idea in the beginning quickly
starts to generate some negative effects? The old adage that: “too many times
the medicine is more harmful than the disease” could very well true.
Remember, as a sufficiency based structure the
tree is read “If the base of the arrow, then the tip of the arrow” and the
ellipse represents a logical “and” statement. The additional injections noted
in the example tree are the ideas you have generated along the way to keep your
good idea on track and stable. Those additional things that must exist in order
for your idea to work.
Future Reality Tree
Future Reality tree can be used for:
• Testing the merits of ideas before taking
action.
• Construct a solution that yields a high
degree of assurance that the existing undesirable effects will be eliminated without
creating devastating new ones.
• Check for and prevent potential negative
ramifications of an idea.
• Build a Strategic plan.
• Verbalize and communicate a vision.
Building an FRT can take some time to
construct, but a good FRT is worth the effort. It is always better to test your
ideas before implementation rather then find out after the fact that the idea
wasn’t so good. It’s a way, if you will; to view your idea in “Fast Forward”
and make sure you like the end results. If you don’t like the results, and you
can’t come up with additional injections to nullify the negative effects, then
go back and select another idea to implement.
In the next blog we will discuss the Steps to
construct an FRT and look for the positive and negative effects that can come
from ideas.
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