Future Reality Tree (FRT)
In a previous posting
we presented the Conflict Resolution Diagram (CRD). The CRD was used to generate and surface the
assumptions between the arrows and several possible injections to overcome the
identified conflict. The CRT and the CRD
were the tools we used to help answer the question: “What to change to.” The Future Reality Tree will be used to
continue the analysis to determine what to change to.
Future Reality Tree (FRT)
The
FRT is sufficiency based with its logic.
In other words, when reading an FRT we revert back to the “If entity A….
then, entity B. With the FRT we are
still trying to isolate the answer “what to change to.” The FRT is the thinking tool that provides a
platform to test ideas and look for the merits and also the possible negative
effects that might be created in the future.
Many
times people will have a seemingly good idea to solve a problem. The FRT allows a person to test the merits of
the idea before taking any action to implement it. The FRT is a logical way to
construct a solution that yields a high degree of assurance that the existing
core problem and undesirable effects from the CRT can/will be eliminated
without creating any new undesirable effects.
The FRT also provides a means to look for any negative effects that
might appear if, and when, the new idea is implemented. The FRT permits the structure of a plan to
verbalize and communicate a future vision of reality. The FRT can also be used as a standalone
thinking tool to test the virtues of an idea.
In our case, the FRT will be constructed as a continuation of a full
systems thinking process analysis for the Dome company.
Constructing the Future Reality Tree
(FRT)
The
FRT has five (5) primary components in its structure. Each component provides a different piece of
the puzzle. These components are:1. Injection
2. Desired Effect
3. Positive Branch
4. Negative Branch
5. Loop
Injection: an
entity that does not exist yet, but when it does it will provide a desirable
effect in the future.
Desired
Effect (DE): It is
the reason for implementing an idea. The
DE’s can be the opposite, or replacements for the UDE’s defined in the CRTPositive Branch: those entities that describe only the positive desirable outcome of an idea.
Negative
Branch: The entities or portion of an FRT that describe the
potential undesirable effects that could come from an idea. Injections are added to overcome the negative
effects. The negative branch is a good
way to see (and understand) when and where a good idea might go bad.
Loop: The ability to connect an entity higher in
the tree with an entity lower in the tree.
The self-reinforcing loop shows the cyclical nature of why things keep
happening the way they do.
The
square cornered boxes in an FRT represent the injections. Injections are those entities that don’t
exist yet but, if they did would lead to desired effects. The round cornered boxes represent entities
that could exist (desired effects) in the new reality. The “effects” represent entities, both
desired and undesired, that don’t exist yet but, could/will exist in the future
as the inevitable results of the entities pointing to them.
In
our case we will test the injection(s) from the CRD in the Dome business
case. You might remember we developed
four (4) possible injections to break the conflict at B à D. Those injections were:1. Production synchronized to maximize throughput.
2. Company policy changed to a throughput/profit measure.
3. Bonuses are determined based on throughput.
4. Change the cost measure to throughput.
With
the injections surfaced in the CRD (on all the arrows) they should all
be sufficient to break the conflict.
However, not all injections are equal.
Each injection could present a different path to success and each could/will
vary in the amount of time it takes or, the amount of money needing to be
invested, or the number of resources required or, the number and possible
severity of the negative branches encountered.
Desired Effects
Once
you have picked an injection to test the merits of the idea then, write down
the Desired Effects that you would expect to see coming from the idea. In our case, we picked the first injection,
“Production is synchronized to maximize throughput.” It is possible to develop the Desired Effects
list using the Undesirable Effects (UDE’s) from the CRT and verbalizing the
opposite effect. In others words, a
desirable or desired effect If the UDE’s
are the entities that currently exist, and you don’t want them to exist then,
what entities do you want to exist?
Desired
Effects1. On-time delivery improves
2. Production orders are entered into the system correctly
3. Product quality improves
4. Production change orders are minimal
5. Production rework time is reduced
When
you are building the FRT start at the bottom with the injection you are testing
and build the tree upwards. Remember:
what we are trying to figure out is if the proposed injection becomes part of
the reality will you achieve the desired effect you hope to achieve?
In our next posting we will begin developing and building our Future Reality Tree looking at possible negative effects and other parts of the FRT.Bob Sproull
1 comment:
Thank you anonymous...I will pass your comment along to Bruce Nelson.
Bob
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